Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Trump Administration is sending its people into hospitals to gather Covid data

Thinking people value data, as has been available on the Pandemic to help judge what one should do. Placed on a map it is very insightful, appearing in the news every day it is current, and it is the future of intelligent discourse. That is why I find it very alarming that the Trump Administration is sending its people into hospitals to gather Covid data. This is straight out of the Russian Disinformation catalog [for more on that, Google The Fog of Falsehood authored by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs which knows the Way of the Ruskies very frigging well.]

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Fujita's Fargo Film

All models are wrong

 This for sure is for those sleepless nights - cause it will put you straight to sleep. But it is about statistical models. These are at the heart of today's COVID-19 planning and so forth. It is beginning to dawn to me that we aren't exactly a scientific country these days. Even with a scientific bent its hard to wrap your head around uncertainty, which is part and parcel with the models. Summed up here best: Used properly, models provide information that can present a framework for understanding a situation. But they aren’t crystal balls that state with certainty what will happen, and they don’t in themselves answer the difficult question of what to do. The eminent British statistician George Box summarized the point with his famous aphorism: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”

Time series data and IoT