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All models are wrong

Qantitative models https://t.co/fG2NRIfXON via @McKinsey This article explains how models can help us make sense of the world and why they behave the way they do (see sidebar “What is a model?”). We also discuss the most common modeling pitfalls and how to avoid them.

— Jack Vaughan (@JackIVaughan) June 25, 2020

 This for sure is for those sleepless nights - cause it will put you straight to sleep. But it is about statistical models. These are at the heart of today's COVID-19 planning and so forth. It is beginning to dawn to me that we aren't exactly a scientific country these days. Even with a scientific bent its hard to wrap your head around uncertainty, which is part and parcel with the models. Summed up here best: Used properly, models provide information that can present a framework for understanding a situation. But they aren’t crystal balls that state with certainty what will happen, and they don’t in themselves answer the difficult question of what to do. The eminent British statistician George Box summarized the point with his famous aphorism: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.”

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